Forecasting, Inventory Management and On-Shelf Availability in Australia

Start Date: October 2006
Target completion: 2007

In 2001 the Efficient Consumer Response Australasia (ECRA) Board commissioned a report in response to the growing desire to address the issue of on-shelf availability (OSA) in the Australasian grocery industry. The result was the well received report A Guide to Efficient Replenishment and Reducing “stock Outs” within the Grocery Industry. The guide details suggestions on developing organisational capability, building collaborative partnerships and using data and technology to improve the replenishment process.
  
The ECRA report indicated that ‘there are an average of 5-10% of items out of stock on the grocery retail shelf at any time in the Australasian grocery industry, with higher levels for fast moving products during peak periods of consumer demand.’ These statistics are similar to those measured in ECR Europe work in this area.

A significant tool for improving OSA is aligning demand forecasting and replenishment to reduce inventory and improve availability. In 2000 ECRA published A Guide to Demand Forecasting within the Grocery Industry which reported that planning and scheduling practices need to be integrated in order to effectively manage the various functional areas throughout the supply chain. The Guide sets out the fundamental and advanced concepts of forecasting processes, organisational requirements and supporting systems for both customers and suppliers.

The 2005 ECR Australasia study, ‘Maximising the Effectiveness of ECRA’ voted OSA as the highest of all potential work streams for importance and suitability, with 82% and 77% respectively. CPFR also rated highly as a potential future work streams with 58% and 55% respectively.

OSA remains a significant problem for retailers, distributors and manufacturers in the consumer goods industry, with little industry improvement on the above statistics recorded. The current operating environment is more complex, significant changes such as the increased volume from off shore and contract manufacturing and the focus on reducing inventory through the entire supply chain are impacting availability. A common objective of current supply chain transformation in Australasia and elsewhere in addition to removing costs is to improve on-shelf availability.

Objectives  

The primary objective of this project is to optimise inventory levels and improve OSA.

Board Sponsor: Ian MacDonald Woolworths
Project Manager:  Samantha Blake AFGC
Project Leader: TBC